About a year and a half ago I wrote an article, Can the Economy Stay Up if the Market Doesn’t? When I wrote that the stock market had just suffered a temporary lull, in which the S&P 500 had its first decline in three years (about 6%), followed by a sharp recovery in October, 2015, erasing the prior quarter’s losses. In that article, I showed the high correlation between consumer confidence and the stock market, both in the short-run and the long-run, include that year of 2015 (see chart below).
David A. Pace, CFA
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